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Prediction for CME (2022-10-21T04:49:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2022-10-21T04:49Z
CME Note: From SIDC Ursigram (2022-10-21T20:49Z): A possibly Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejection was observed in LASCO/C2 data on 21 October 04:49 UTC. This is believed to be associated with a radio pulse on 21 October 04:08 UTC and a C1.6-class flare, peak time 21 October 04:32 UTC from NOAA active region 3126 as well as an EUV wave. A possible impact on Earth may be expected 27 October 04:59 UTC, with the caveat that the CME speed is rather low and said impact may not be too profound. From Tarik Salman (LASSOS team): I do not see any CME signatures on 10-27 0r 10-28 (confirming that there is a start of HSS on 10-28).
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-10-27T04:59Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 70.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note: 
From SIDC Ursigram (2022-10-21T12:49Z):  A possibly Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejection was observed in Lasco/C2 data on 21 October 04:49 UTC. This is believed to be associated with a radio pulse on 21 October 04:08 UTC and a C1.6-class flare, peak time 21 October 04:32 UTC from NOAA active region 3126 as well as an EUV wave. A possible impact on Earth may be expected 27 October 04:59 UTC, with the caveat that the CME speed is rather low and said impact may not be too profound.
Lead Time: 136.88 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Robert Loper (M2M Office) on 2022-10-21T12:06Z
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